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Assignment 4

Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Rising Government Debt in the US

The Great Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic have stretched government finances in many countries. This assignment asks you to assess the prospects for the ratio of US Federal government debt to GDP and determine whether there is a plausible upper bound after which we might expect to see important negative effects on the economy.

Please use the data in the companion Excel spreadsheet. It contains historical data for the US and the UK as well as long term projections for the US. Some historical evidence from major fiscal crisis is provided in the Figures and Tables below for additional qualitative assessments.1

PART I

For this part you should look only at the projections for US debt, deficits, rates and growth over the next 30 years.

  1. 1)  Assuming growth and interest rate future projections are correct what is the maximum level of the primary deficit the US can afford to prevent debt from remaining around 100% to 105% of GDP by 2051?
  2. 2)  What is your answer if instead growth and interest rates return to their US post war averages?

PART II

For this part you should rely on the historical data provided for the US and the UK.

Suppose you are a senior figure in the Treasury Department and are tasked with making the case that high levels of debt are damaging to the economy. Use the historical data to find evidence high levels of government debt adversely affect current or future:

a) GDP growth b) Inflation rates c) Interest Rates


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